據(jù)印尼2月18日消息，印尼橡膠協(xié)會（Indonesia Rubber Association）的一位資深人士周六稱，估計印尼在2015年將超越泰國，成為全球第一大橡膠生產(chǎn)國，料較之前預(yù)期提前5年實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，因該國橡膠生產(chǎn)能力提升且有新的橡膠樹播種。
印尼橡膠協(xié)會的主席Suharto Honggokusumo稱，“估計印尼的橡膠產(chǎn)量將在2015年超越泰國，因?yàn)橛∧嵯鹉z產(chǎn)量前景良好。”
“自2008年開始，印尼橡膠產(chǎn)量料平均每年增加5-6%，估計到2015年，印尼橡膠產(chǎn)量料為380萬噸。”
他表示，估計泰國橡膠產(chǎn)量料年均增加2-3%，2015年泰國橡膠產(chǎn)量料為375萬噸。
印尼2007年橡膠產(chǎn)量為280萬噸，該國橡膠產(chǎn)量料逐步增加，因該國生產(chǎn)能力提升，橡膠價格走高，輪胎制造行業(yè)等對橡膠需求增加。
該高層人士稱，“在2002之前，每公頃的橡膠田每年的產(chǎn)量要低于700公斤，2007年已經(jīng)增加至每公頃979公斤，但是泰國的橡膠產(chǎn)量增速受限，因受天氣因素和南方局勢不穩(wěn)等影響。全球橡膠需求前景良好，這也是橡膠價格位于高位的原因所在”
"Global demand is good, that's why the price is also good. Farmers are still happy to take care of their plantations," he said.
Indonesia, which churned out around 2.6 million tonnes of rubber in 2006, is replanting 250,000 hectares (617,800 acres) of old smallholders' rubber plantations and will add 50,000 hectares of new smallholders plantation per year until 2010.
International prices have rebounded sharply since hitting 30-year lows in 2001 after main producers Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia decided to curb output to push up prices.
Indonesia's tyre grade SIR20 was quoted at $1.22 per pound on Friday, up nearly 8 percent since the start of 2008.
Indonesia has been expected to overtake Thailand as the world's biggest natural rubber producer in 2020 by nearly doubling its natural rubber output to 4.12 million tonnes.
But Thailand's rubber production has been hit by erratic weather, labour shortages and separatist violence in the three provinces in the south, which produce nearly 10 percent of the 3 million tonnes of the country's annual output.
More than 2,800 people have been killed in four years of separatist insurgency.
Indonesia's rubber exports, mainly to the United States, Japan and China, were estimated at 2.4 million tonnes in 2007 but this year's exports could be smaller due to higher domestic consumption, said Honggokusumo.
"Domestic consumption is fairly big. It reached around 390,000 tonnes in 2007. In 2008, local consumption is still healthy and we may see growth of around 10 percent," he said, adding that domestic intake stood around 355,000 tonnes in 2006.
Demand from Indonesia's auto industry was strong, fed by economic growth at 6.3 percent in 2007, an 11-year high, Honggokusumo added.
Global rubber consumption is forecast to grow 2.7 percent this year after rising 5.7 percent in 2007 -- the fastest in three years on growing demand in key markets, the International Rubber Study Group earlier this month.
Global synthetic rubber consumption was estimated to have increased by 6 percent to 13.19 million tonnes in 2007, while natural rubber consumption rose by 5.4 percent to 9.71 million tonnes.
