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Microplastics (MPs) have caused global concerns due to their detrimental effects on ecosystems and even humans. Recycling aged plastic products ahead of MPs generation can be an effective approach to mitigate increasingly serious microplastic pollution. However, predicting MPs generation remains a great challenge. In this regard, we report a simulation method through associating plastics aging with mechanical failure on a time scale to predict MPs generation and give an experimental verification. The results indicate that the proposed evaluation method has high accuracy for predicting MPs generation from aged polystyrene foams. Under conditions of ultraviolet (UV) irradiation and heat for 1000 h, the aged polystyrene foam generate significant microplastics (6.78 × 10⁶ particles/cm³) by water scouring force after the expected aging time (400 h). Furthermore, the experiment results verify the synergistic effect of UV irradiation and heat on polystyrene MPs generation. This work suggests a new strategy to predict MPs generation from aged plastics in complex environments, which provides meaningful guidance for the use and recycling of plastic products.